Production Trends in the United States Since 1870 Book

PUBLICATIONS OF THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC. NUMBER 23 PRODUCTION TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES SINCE 1870 PRODUCTION TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES SINCE 1870 ARTHUR F. BURNS NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH NEW YORK 1934 Repnnled 1950 RELATION OF THE DIRECTORS TO THE WORK OF THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1. The object of the National Bureau of Economic Research is to as certain and to present to the public important economic facts and their interpretation in a scientific and impartial manner. The Hoard of Directors is charged with the responsibility of ensuring that the work of the Bureau is carried on in strict conformity with this object. 2. To this end the Board of Directors shall appoint one or more Di rectors of Research. 3. The Director or Directors of Research shall submit to the members of the Board, or to its Executive Committee, for their formal adoption, all specific proposals concerning researches to be instituted. 4. No study shall be published until the Director or Directors of Re search shall have submitted to the Board a summary report drawing atten tion to the character of the data and their utilization in the study, the nature and treatment of the problems involved, the main conclusions and such other information as in their opinion will serve to determine the suitability of the study for publication in accordance with the principles of the Bureau. 5. A copy of any manuscript proposed for publication shall also be sub mitted to each member of the Board. If publication is approved each member is entitled to have published also a memorandum of any dissent or reservation he may express, together with a brief statement of his reasons. The publication of a volume docs not, however, imply that each member of the Board of Directors has read the manuscript and passed upon its validity in every detail. 6. The results of an inquiry shall not be published except with the ap proval of at least a majority of the entire Board and a two-thirds majority of all those members of the Board who shall have voted on the proposal within the time fixed for the receipt of votes on the publication proposed. The limit shall be forty-five days from the date of the submission of the synopsis and manuscript of the proposed publication unless the Board ex tends the limit upon the request of any member the limit may be extended for not more than thirty days. 7. A copy of this resolution shall, unless otherwise determined by the Board, be printed in each copy of every Bureau publication. Resolution of October 25, 1926, revised February 6, ACKNOWLEDGMENTS In the course of this study I have received con siderable assistance from friends and co-workers, to whom I am deeply grateful. I am chiefly indebted to the staff of the National Bureau to Dr. Wesley C. Mitchell for helpful comments on successive versions of the manuscript Dr. Simon Kuznets for constructive assistance at almost every stage of the inquiry Dr. F. R. Ma caulay for assistance on several points in statistical theory Dr. A. G. Silverman for stimulating criti cisms of the manuscript and Mr. H. G. Brunsman, formerly with the Bureau, for aid in numerous problems of statistical mechanics. A number of research workers not connected with the National Bureau generously supplied me with various types of information in a few cases, with unpublished data. I have tried in the text to acknowledge fully the more important assistance I have received in this manner. Two of my former students, Mr. M. Friedman and Mr. L. Vass, offered detailed suggestions for improving the manuscript, and checked the ac curacy of various mathematical statements. The bulk of the computing work was done by Mr. Harold Rosen and Mr. Charles Wittmann. In a late revision of the manuscript I was assisted by Miss Dorothy Achilles, who is also responsible for the excellence of the charts. A. F. B. THE PROBLEM AND A SUMMARY OF THE FINDINGS By Wesley C...Read More