Understanding Probability: Chance Rules in Everyday Life Book

Chance events are commonplace in our daily lives. Every day we encounter many situations where the outcome is uncertain, and, perhaps without realizing it, we make a guess about the likelihood of one outcome or another. But mastering the concepts of probability can cast a new light on situations where randomness and chance appear to rule. Here the reader can learn about the world of probability in an informal way. Lotteries and casino games provide a natural source of motivation, and these are carefully discussed with many worked examples to illustrate the key concepts and ideas from probability theory. The emphasis is on why probability works and how it can be applied. The author introduces the reader to the law of large numbers, betting systems, random walks, the bootstrap, rare events, the central limit theorem, the multivariate normal distribution, the Bayesian approach, generating functions, and more. Written with wit and clarity, this book can easily be read by anyone who is not put off by a few numbers and some high school algebra. It is also ideally suited to students of engineering or computer science undertaking a first course in probability.